jailcd2023034: A new model of urban residential building stock and flow a case of Hangzhou, China

Abstract

Building activities impact the environment. Urban building stock and flow modeling reveals the metabolic mechanism of building systems and helps address urban housing challenges. Paper models urban residential building flow and stock with a system dynamics model, measuring building stock, new construction, and demolition.The results show that in the case of Hangzhou: (1) Under the baseline scenario, the new build are peaks at 20.11 million m2 in 2021, while the demolition area peaks at about 2082, with 11.43 million m2; the residential building stock in Hangzhou reaches a total of 515.75 million m2 in about 2060. (2) In the large area scenario. The peak in total construction is delayed and will stabilise at 650.46 million m2 in 2057. Thereafter, the housing stock will continue to grow at a low rate. The flow of new construction will peak at 23.99 million m2 in 2024. (3) In the Long lifespan scenario, the flow in the demolition area slows down significantly.