jismart2024033: Prediction of carbon emission time characteristic of building energy system

Abstract

Under the goal of "dual carbon", the proportion of non-fossil energy in China has increased rapidly. With the optimization of energy structure and the evolution of urban climate, the spatial and temporal characteristics of "same energy with different sources, same energy with different prices, and same energy with different carbon" have become increasingly obvious. Taking residential buildings in cold areas as an example, this project adopts the planed data of "dual carbon" target, and uses CCWorldWeatherGen climate prediction program and Honeybee, a building energy consumption simulation software, to analyze and calculate the temporal and spatial characteristics of dynamic carbon emissions of the building energy system from 2020 to 2080. In addition to the impact of future energy structure changes, climate change has a greater impact on building energy consumption, and the rise in temperature leads to a significant increase or even doubling of building cooling energy consumption throughout the year, and heating energy consumption decreases by about 25.9%. During the operation of the building, the carbon emissions of outsourced electricity and outsourced heat are reduced by approximately 62% and 79.5%, respectively. This project provides theoretical guidance and data support for energy saving and low-carbon operation of building energy system.