jismart2024005: Unraveling the Twin Paradox: How do Urban Sprawl and Multidimensional Shrinkage Coexist in Chinese Cities?

Abstract

The rapid urbanization in China has led to the coexistence of urban sprawl and multidimensional shrinkage, posing challenges for sustainable development. This study analyzes 283 Chinese cities at or above the prefecture level from 2011 to 2019, employing the urban sprawl index, urban shrinkage index, and bivariate Moran's I to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns, interactions, and impacts of urban sprawl-shrinkage. The aim is to provide insights for managing urban sprawl-shrinkage. The results indicate that: (1) From 2011 to 2019, multidimensional urban shrinkage in Chinese cities intensified, particularly in the Northeast region, with the issue expanding and clustering regionally. (2) Urban sprawl has somewhat alleviated but remains widespread, with high-level sprawl decreasing and moderate-level sprawl increasing. (3) The coexistence of urban sprawl-shrinkage is expanding and becoming more complex, primarily characterized by urban sprawl and population shrinkage, especially significant in Northeast, North, and East China. (4) Bivariate Moran's I spatial analysis reveals that although the overall relationship between sprawl and multidimensional urban shrinkage is weak, significant spatial associations exist between urban sprawl and four dimensions of urban shrinkage (population, social, economic, comprehensive) in parts of Northeast and Southwest China. These findings provide important references for rational urban sprawl-shrinkage management.