JiSMART2021—018: Growth and Shrinkage of Cities for the Yangtze River Economic Belt in the Future

Abstract

Urban shrinkage is gradually becoming a general phenomenon in the process of urban development, especially in developing countries. The evolutionary trend of urban growth and shrinkage can inform the policy response to sustainable urban development. Economic data are highly continuous and easily available, which provide a new perspective for urban shrinkage prediction. This study takes the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example from an economic perspective and uses a gray model to predict shrinking cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2020-2025 and 2025-2030. The results showed that 158 counties shrinking in the two time periods of 2020-2025 and 2025-2030, mainly distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hunan and Zhejiang provinces, and their shrinking degree is mainly slight, moderate and severe. Under the background of imbalanced regional development, cities should establish a preventive system to cope with future shrinkage and mitigate the negative impact of shrinking on urban development.