JAUE2024-037: Prediction of Urban Household Carbon Emissions in China Based on Key Indicators

Abstract

Revealing the future trends of urban household carbon emissions is crucial for determining effective carbon reduction pathways and achieving China’s "dual carbon" goals. Currently, urban household carbon emissions account for 35% of the national total, yet research on the future development and evolution of provincial household carbon emissions remains limited. Reducing household energy consumption and carbon emissions has become an urgent priority. This study conducts an in-depth analysis of previous research on household carbon emission forecasts, focusing on predictive indicators such as population growth, per capita GDP, and urbanization level. The study also incorporates the development status of various provinces and analyzes the trends of these indicators to establish a baseline model for future household carbon emission predictions. Furthermore, this paper explores the carbon reduction potential and peak timing of household carbon emissions across provinces under the 2030 carbon peak target, aiming to fill the gap in existing research on the future development of provincial household carbon emissions.