JAUE2024-027: Impact of Electrification of Non-Electricity Demand on Hourly CO2 Emissions

Abstract

The government has declared its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050. There are several policies to achieve this goal. Among them, this study focuses on the analysis of the impact of electrification on CO2 emissions in non-residential buildings. Energy consumption in offices, public offices, hospitals, and hotels was assumed based on the DECC database, in which electrification replaces non-electric power with electric power. Then, by multiplying the hourly CO2 emission factor (kg-CO2/kWh) proposed in a previous report, we calculated hourly CO2 emissions and aimed to evaluate the impact of electrification on CO2 emissions. As a result, first, in terms of annual CO2 emissions, it was confirmed that a 50% electrification would reduce CO2 emissions by 1% in Kansai offices and public offices, 17% in Kansai hospitals, and 1-17% in Kansai hospitals. Next, in August and January, when energy consumption is high, and in Hokkaido and Kyushu offices and hospitals, which are characterized by CO2 emission coefficients, hourly CO2 emissions peaked in the evening when the electrification rate is 0%, when electricity demand is high in both regions and applications, and when CO2 emission coefficients are high. However, for hospitals in Hokkaido, where demand for non-electric power is high, the January peak shifts to the start of the heating season as electrification progresses. On the other hand, it was confirmed that the August peak occurs in the evening when cooling demand remains, regardless of building use or region, even with the progress of electrification. Thus, the promotion of electrification has different effects depending on the region and season, and it is necessary to examine whether the promotion of electrification is effective in all regions, and to evaluate CO2 emissions in the future.