JAUE2017-102: A Probabilistic Inference Model of Apartment Occupant for Utility Demand Calculation in the Early Design Stage

Abstract

In this study, a model to support facility capacity sizing and optimized energy supply planning by predicting 
building occupant information and building use schedules based on only the limited information that can be obtained 
at the design stage for apartment buildings is presented. 
In the case of residential apartment buildings, energy and water usage varies greatly depending on the size of 
each unit, the number of household members, and family composition. Therefore, it is necessary to infer the 
occupant information when designing the equipment system and to calculate demand based on the information. The 
results of this study confirm that the heuristic method can be utilized based on national statistics data and end-use 
consumption units, when suggesting approximate values for utility demand for decision making with only limited 
information obtained in the early design stage. We verified the proposed plausibility through the trial utility demand 
calculation. The verification we have tried here is a simple comparison between the yearly demand calculation value 
and the measured value based on the end-use consumption unit proposed in the previous studies in Korea.